基于感知风险理论的P2P网络借贷风险及其对投资行为的影响机制

The supervisor and control of the risk of Peer-to-Peer lending has present itself to the significant barrier during its development in China. Although a great growing concern has given from government and lending platforms with series of regulations being made to avoid and prevent risk, the problem has not been solved effectively yet. This project, based on the perceived risk theory, extracts the nerve indexes of brain activities as a measure of risk because of the uncertainty of the subjective risk. According to the measurement, we will explore the influence factors of perceived risk, and explain the internal reasons of the effects of perceived risk by capturing the dynamic brain activities to investigate the impact of risk on the investment decision-making behavior and its cognitive mechanism. Finally, combined with the results of empirical researches and behavior experiments, investment decision model, which will be verified and corrected by cases studies, will be constructed based on the investor's behavior. .This project will help us understand the internal processing mechanism of investment risk better, and summarize the regularities of network lending, and also will provide suggestions for the risk supervision and prevention. Compared to the previous researches, this project will be carried out in interdisciplinary areas using fusion of multi-methods. And policy recommendations are to be provided for the government and lending platforms with full consideration to the investors’ perceived risk and behavior rules. Meanwhile, from the investors’ views, risk prevention suggestions will be given.

P2P 网络借贷的风险管控问题已经成为其在我国发展的核心障碍。虽然政府和借贷平台对此非常重视，出台了一系列的政策、规则来规避风险，但是该问题始终得不到有效解决。本项目基于感知风险理论，针对主观风险测量的不确定性，提取脑神经指标作为测量风险的依据。在此基础上探究影响风险感知的因素，通过捕捉大脑活动动态变化过程来解释影响风险感知的内在原因，并探究风险对投资人决策行为的影响及其认知机制。最后，结合实证和行为实验等多层面的研究成果，构建基于投资人行为决策模型，并通过案例研究验证和修正模型。.通过对以上这些问题的研究可以更好地了解投资人对风险信息加工的认知特征和网络借贷行为规律，并为监管和防范网络借贷风险提供建议。与以往研究相比，本项目尝试在交叉学科领域运用多方法融合的方式开展研究。在为政府和借贷平台提供风险防范策略建议时，充分考虑投资人的风险认知和行为规律，同时也通过引导投资人行为开展风险防范。

本项目在P2P网络借贷蓬勃发展的背景下，围绕当前P2P网络借贷中影响其发展的风险问题进行研究，借鉴风险决策与网络购物中的相关研究，基于感知风险理论对网络借贷中投资人的风险感知问题以及感知风险对投资人决策的影响进行研究。本项目采用问卷、案例研究、历史数据实证研究以及认知神经实验等多方法融合开展研究，并将各种研究方法得出的研究结果进行整合。研究发现，P2P网络借贷过程中，借款人外貌、 筹款进度等与实际还款能力无关的一系列因素均会影响出借人的风险评估，进而影响其出借决策。本课题还探究了风险、影响因素和投资行为三者之间的相互作用机制。研究表明，在出借人做出投资决策过程中，会涉及一系列认知加工过程，在事件相关电位数据中，N2成分、P300成分、P2成分、认知处理阶段的LPP成分、预测偏差引起的FRN等成份揭示了其认知机制，而行为数据与神经数据的耦合分析揭示了感知风险在P2P网络借贷投资行为过程中的内在机理。从而形成对投资人网络借贷中感知风险评估的脑认知机制、影响因素以及感知风险对投资决策影响的内在机制等问题的科学认识。最后，本项目在了解出借人在网络借贷过程中的心理、情绪、认知以及行为的基础上，为网络借贷风险防范、减少投资中因非理性的风险评估带来的投资风险提供建议。